Phil Biggs covers the automotive industry for NewsTalk 1340 WJRW
September 14, 2014 – 10:50 am ET
DETROIT, Michigan. – As vast amounts of technology and leading-edge development pour into the auto space, new organic automotive initiatives continue to emerge to create previously undeveloped business segments such as Self-Driving Vehicle (SDV), V2V (Vehicle-to-vehicle), V2I (Vehicle-to-infrastructure), Business-to-Grid (B2G) and more. Alternative powertrain options, particularly compressed natural gas (CNG) and hydrogen fuel cell, are also experiencing growing commercial interest and investment.
What’s driving the overall powertrain furor is the industry’s challenge to achieve the CAFÉ standard of 52.5 mpg by 2025. At last month’s Center for Automotive Research Briefings conference, one of the most recurring topics was the advent of the Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV). While it may not be receiving as much press as the “Google Car” is getting, FCV nevertheless is moving forward with a bullet and receiving considerable attention from nearly every OEM.
At the moment, hydrogen fuel cell concept vehicles seem to be preferred by OEMs over CNG, EV, biodiesel and other powertrain options. As OEMs attempt to achieve CAFÉ goals via energy diversification within its powertrain lineup, hydrogen fuel cell is making a positive case for itself. Chief among the advantages is FCV’s zero emissions, followed closely by better high performance capabilities. With nearly 50% of U.S. electricity generated by coal, many electric vehicles do have a significant carbon footprint…despite the EV’s “long tailpipe” with the vast amount of pollution from power plants generated near the plant and not close to major cities. Toyota, Honda, and some other automakers seem convinced that fuel-cell cars are better suited to Americans’ driving habits than EVs will ever be, yet it’s hard to prove.
What may be accelerating FCV most is how quickly the infrastructure and ecosystem is coming together. And it doesn’t hurt matters that market leader Toyota appears to be fully committed to introduce the FCV in Japan by second quarter 2015, with U.S. and Europe seeing its version later next year. Toyota has offered financial support to provide infrastructure loans and is participating in a three-way partnership with the State of California ($28 million grant) and organic supplier FE Fuels. This creative alliance will provide a full range of retail hydrogen fuel options initially for select U.S. markets and eventually key global regions. Having the acceptance and thrust of an ecosystem plan, even in its initial implementation stages, is powerful and clearly helps the FCV mission.
The FCV implementation timeline is aggressive and not without risk. The FCV business timeline depicted here for the U.S. originates in the West Coast market and assumes successful commercial adoption of 150,000 vehicles on the road as well as a seven-fold increase in fueling stations in less than ten years (see Figure 1). These are very aggressive assumptions. While FCV is expected to be commercialized without using fossil fuel inputs, and vehicle propulsion would not contribute to carbon dioxide emissions, there are risk issues that remain thorny: high weight, storage pressure problems, inefficiency of production processes, and nagging infrastructure investment costs that are projected to be very high. Most importantly to the consumer, warranty and reliability are unproven and will take years to calculate and match up to market demand.
Figure 1 – Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Implementation Timeline, courtesy Toyota & First Element Fuel
Build out CA network Achieve profitability Expansion into new U.S. regions (NY, MA, NJ, CT, PA)
2014 2018 2023
4000 1H vehicles 150,000 1H vehicles
60 fueling stations 400 fueling stations
What can we expect next? FCVs are on a path forward, and could become a significant choice in the “powertrain lineups” being proposed by automakers going into the next decade. Yet uncertainty remains a big part of the future planning. As Justin Ward, Toyota Vice President & General Manager, Powertrain Systems, commented recently, “Opportunities are possible in the FCV segment, but important challenges include the need to address fuel cell stack durability and produce smaller components as we manage light weighting initiatives. And we’re tasked to do all this while driving down overall costs in hopes of generating real consumer demand.”
Right now consumer take-rates don’t look promising for any of the new alternative vehicles. Even if EVs or FCVs were affordable (which they aren’t today), consider the negatives facing these potential car buyers: EVs have a range of a little better than 100 miles before requiring a charge. FCVs, in contrast, can operate for more than 250 miles on a tank of hydrogen, and re-fueling takes 5-7 minutes using equipment similar to traditional gas pumps. However, FCVs cannot be filled up at home while EVs can…although batteries are undependable at times. Quite a quandary.
David Baker of www.sfgate.com writes, “Even though EV sales are now gaining some traction, OEMs still have serious doubts the average driver will ever embrace them. Eco-minded drivers who spent years badgering the auto industry into building electric cars haven’t done the same for FCVs. Many of them even call the new technology a waste of time, requiring a whole new network of expensive fueling stations. Fuel-cell cars, as a result, will jump into the market without a safety net.” But the beat goes on, with the likelihood of even more technology coming to your town soon.
Phil Biggs is Executive Vice President for the Nashville, TN-based technology company, NeXovation.
Read more:
